BTC Price at Risk? Luke Gromen Sees Possible Fall to $40K

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Global macro analyst Luke Gromen is dialing back his Bitcoin enthusiasm, warning that the top crypto looks vulnerable as macro conditions, quantum‑risk narratives and technicals shift.

Global macro analyst Luke Gromen has turned near-term bearish on Bitcoin, even saying that a drop to the $40,000 range is possible in 2026. He argues that the number-one crypto looks vulnerable as macro conditions and investor narratives shift.

In a recent appearance on the RiskReversal podcast, Gromen largely stuck by the core debasement trade thesis for fiat currencies and hard assets, but said that gold and certain equities were doing a better job than Bitcoin of expressing that view, adding, “Basically everything but gold and the dollar are likely to get waylaid.”

The debasement trade thesis is a bet that governments will quietly reduce the real value of their debts through inflation and currency weakening, so investors shift out of fiat and into scarce or real assets like gold, commodities and Bitcoin that are expected to better hold their purchasing power over time.


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