Bitcoin at Fair Value: 5 On-Chain Metrics to Watch
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Bitcoin's Sharpe Signal is sitting at 0.40, just below the 0.5 threshold that has historically preceded stronger upside phases.
Whales are quietly accumulating, retail investors are selling, and short-term holders are in the red, while not a single one of the four conditions that could confirm a bull market has been met.
What the Data Shows
One of the most closely watched indicators right now is the Bitcoin Sharpe Signal, which measures risk-adjusted return momentum. According to CoinMarketCap, it is hovering near 0.40 after briefly touching the 0.50 threshold over a week ago when BTC was approaching the $75,000 mark. The platform’s analysts say that, historically, a move above 0.50 has marked stronger upside phases, but for now, the indicator remains in what they are calling a “pre-signal” zone.
Meanwhile, the MVRV Z-Score, which compares Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value, currently reads 0.56, which is a recovery from a low of 0.30 recorded in February. But it is still far below its January level of 1.42, when BTC was worth about $96,000.
The current reading is between 0.4 and 0.8, which is the fair value range. This means Bitcoin is neither cheap nor overheated.
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