BTC Buying Opportunity? What Investors Should Know

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Bitcoin outperformed on US holidays during 11 of the past 14 calendar years analyzed historically.

A new study by CoinGecko found that buying Bitcoin on US holidays has historically delivered much stronger short-term returns compared to regular trading days.

The analysis examined Bitcoin’s forward returns across different calendar days between May 1, 2013, and May 8, 2026, focusing on single-day gains after purchase.

BTC’s Strongest Next-Day Rallies
According to the data, US holidays recorded an average next-day Bitcoin return of 0.77%, compared to just 0.19% on non-holidays. CoinGecko found that holidays outperformed regular days in 11 of the 14 calendar years included in the study. Among regular weekdays, Mondays and Wednesdays posted the highest average next-day return at 0.38%, while Thursdays were the only day to produce a negative average return of 0.09%.

The report identified New Year’s Day as the strongest-performing holiday for Bitcoin purchases, with an average next-day return of 2.01% across 13 observations and a win rate of 84.6%, meaning Bitcoin rose the following day in 11 out of 13 years. Columbus Day posted the same 84.6% win rate alongside an average return of 1.70%, while Christmas generated a 1.46% average next-day gain with a 53.8% win rate.

New Year’s Day pattern may indicate the broader January momentum effect often seen in traditional financial markets, where investors deploy fresh capital at the start of a new year. The study added that Bitcoin may also benefit from a shift away from December tax-loss selling into renewed January positioning. The report noted that Bitcoin’s price on January 1 ranged from $313 in 2015 to $93,507 in 2025, yet the pattern of next-day gains remained relatively consistent throughout the period.


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