Will $2B Bitcoin Options Expiry Move the Market Today?

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Friday is upon us again, and with it the first Bitcoin options expiry event of the second half of 2026.

Around 31,000 Bitcoin options contracts will expire on Friday, July 3, with a notional value of roughly $1.9 billion. This event is much smaller than last week’s big end-of-quarter expiry, so there is unlikely to be any impact on spot markets.

Crypto markets have been flat for most of this week but picked up on Friday, with $70 billion entering the space since Monday as losses have slowed from last month’s rout.

This week’s batch of Bitcoin options contracts has a put/call ratio of 0.7, meaning that sellers of long (call) contracts slightly outweigh short (put) contract sellers. Max pain is around $61,000, which is close to current spot prices, so some will be in the money on expiry.

Open interest (OI), or the value or number of Bitcoin options contracts yet to expire, remains highest at the $80,000 strike price on Deribit, with $1.1 billion, but short sellers still have $900 million in OI at $60,000.

Total BTC options OI across all exchanges has fallen to a 16-month low of $26 billion following last week’s big expiry, according to Coinglass

Short-dated skew continues to account for the majority of downside premium embedded in BTC options pricing,” said derivatives provider Greeks Live this week.

“Options positioning remains primarily driven by near-term risk management rather than a broad repricing of longer-term expectations.”

In addition to today’s batch of Bitcoin options, around 134,000 Ethereum contracts are expiring, with a notional value of $228 million, a max pain of $1,650, and a put/call ratio of 1.3.

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